Scenario method and narratives of future: History and comparison
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Abstract
The scenario method is a key component of foresight and futures studies. For decades, it has been used in these studies to channel scientific knowledge and collective intelligence for the design and imagination of alternative futures. In this method, the narrative dimension plays a fundamental role, although this is not always recognized. This article proposes to explore the development of narratives from two analytical strategies. First, it compares different methods proposed by foresight schools for developing scenarios. Four contrasting methods are analyzed: the two-axis method, typical of the corporate strategic planning school; the Godet method, from the French school of strategic prospective; and two methods from the Hawaii school: the archetype method and the Manoa method. Secondly, from a narratological and discourse analysis perspective, different languages of movement used by the methods to construct narratives are highlighted, and other concepts that can contribute to defining communication strategies are proposed. These contributions seek to deepen the strategies for scenario development, in order to develop approaches that are more adapted to the circumstances of application, to their audiences, and more reflective.
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