O método de cenários e as narrativas do futuro. História e comparação
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Resumo
O método de cenários é uma peça fundamental dos estudos prospectivos. Há décadas, ele acompanha esses estudos na tarefa de canalizar o conhecimento científico e a inteligência coletiva para a concepção e a imaginação de futuros alternativos. Nesse método, a dimensão narrativa assume um papel fundamental, embora isso nem sempre seja reconhecido. Este artigo propõe aprofundar a elaboração de narrativas a partir de duas estratégias analíticas. Em primeiro lugar, apresenta uma comparação entre diferentes modalidades que as escolas de prospectiva propuseram para elaborar cenários. São analisadas quatro modalidades contrastantes: o método de dois eixos, próprio da escola de planejamento estratégico corporativo; o Método Godet, da escola francesa de prospectiva estratégica; e dois métodos da escola do Havaí: o dos arquétipos e o Método Manoa. Em segundo lugar, a partir de uma abordagem narratológica e de análise do discurso, evidenciam-se diferentes linguagens de movimento que utilizam os métodos para construir as narrativas e propõem-se outros conceitos que podem contribuir para definir estratégias comunicativas. Com essas contribuições, busca-se aprofundar as estratégias de elaboração de cenários, para desenvolver propostas mais adaptadas às circunstâncias de aplicação, aos seus públicos e mais reflexivas.
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